Kerala Monsoon 2026 Delayed: IMD Forecasts Weak Onset Before June 5-6

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has updated its monsoon forecast, indicating that the southwest monsoon's arrival over Kerala will be weak and delayed, now expected only after June 5–6. Recent runs of the Global Forecast System (GFS) model show that essential upper-level winds needed for a robust monsoon over South India are still subdued, partly due to recent cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal.

While pre-monsoon showers have brought some rain to Kerala, the complete conditions required for declaring the monsoon—sustained rainfall across at least 60% of weather stations, westerly winds of adequate strength, and sufficient cloud cover—are not fully met. Experts anticipate the westerly winds will start strengthening from June 1, gradually intensifying the seasonal rainfall.

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