🚨 Oil Surge Alert: Crude Hits 5‑Month High Amid Israel‑Iran Tensions! 🛢️🔥
- MediaFx
- Jun 23
- 2 min read
TL;DR: Oil prices have surged to heights not seen since January due to escalating Israel‑Iran hostilities—highlighting fears of a Strait of Hormuz blockade. Brent has jumped ~13% and WTI ~10%, fueled by U.S. strikes, tanker‑rate spikes, and Goldman’s $10/barrel geopolitical premium. India is safeguarding its energy needs by boosting imports from Russia and the U.S. Meanwhile, markets brace for volatile days ahead.
⚠️ What’s Pushing Prices Up?
Escalation in the Middle East:
U.S. joined Israel’s recent airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend, pushing Brent to ~$78.9/barrel and WTI to ~$75.7—marks not seen since Jan 2025.
Since mid-June, Brent rocketed by ~13%, WTI ~10% .
Strait of Hormuz Fears:
Iran’s parliament has officially backed measures to block the Hormuz strait—a route carrying ~20% of global oil.
Even talk of closure adds risk premiums between $5–$10/barrel (per analysts) . Goldman estimates risk premium at around $10/barrel.
Shipping Disruptions:
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates from Gulf to China have surged ~40% since June 13—showing elevated risk perception.
📈 Market Outlook & Expert Take
Indicator | Value / Insight |
Goldman Sachs Forecast | If supply stable → Brent falls to ~$60 in Q4 2025. Any embargo or half-closure could push prices to $90–$110/barrel. |
J.P. Morgan’s Warning | Up to $120/barrel possible in worst-case Iran-Hormuz blockade . |
Geosphere Capital | 25% chance of real disruption; 75% chance tension stays hot without major supply cuts . |
🇮🇳 What This Means for India
India has ramped up crude imports from Russia (2–2.2 mn bpd) and the U.S. (~0.44 mn bpd) in June, diversifying away from Hormuz-dependent sources.
Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri reassured that Indian OMCs have weeks’ worth of reserves, with alternate routes active.
But global spikes could push fuel prices higher and strain the rupee if the crisis deepens.
✍️ MediaFx Take (from People's Perspective)
We’re seeing working people hit hardest—fuel shock means skyrocketing transport costs, inflation bites into wages, and profits enrich big oil corporations. The world needs peace, not profit, and fair energy sharing, not war profiteering. Governments should protect public interest—tap strategic reserves, negotiate ceasefires, and prevent price gouging. Equity before profiteering!
📣 Over to you— what do you think? Drop your thoughts in the comments: will diplomacy calm the markets, or will petrol bills keep climbing?
